Shit Hits The Fan (SHTF)
What Does SHTF Mean?
SHTF stands for Shit Hits The Fan. An unexpected emergency situation has occurred, catching most people off-guard and everyone is in panic mode.
The concept of 💩 hitting a fast spinning fan, which then sprays it everywhere is quite graphic, but it simply represents the idea that events are unfolding exponentially rather than linearly. They start slowly and the spin out of control very fast:
The key thing to remember is that most SHTF scenarios all share two characteristics:
Events unfold and escalate so fast that there simply isn’t time put in place the measures you need to effectively deal with it.
Everyone else is experiencing the same issues at the same time. A few families quickly popping to a supermarket is fine but 200,000 people suddenly popping to their local supermarkets will empty the shelves and break the supply chain.
If you have the right preps in places ahead of time you move from the large group of unprepared people all doing the same thing at once, causing major issues in the process, to a small group of people focusing on what comes next.
What Does SHTF Mean For Preppers?
SHTF usually refers to one of the following types of event:
National Crisis
Severe weather
Civil unrest
Financial crisis
Terror attack
Cyber attack
Pandemic e.g. COVID-19 (“the rona”)
Sea level rise
Petrol / gas supplies are low or run out
The power grid goes down locally or nationally
Nuclear powerplant meltdown
Zombies (only joking, zombies are purely entertainment)
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)
An EMP is an invisible burst of electromagnetic energy, a combination of electric energy and magnetic fields.
It travels at the speed of light, potentially affecting all of the devices with sensitive microelectronics in the blast radius.
Once on the move this pulse will couple (be absorbed) into any suitable antennas (metal) it hits. If the antenna is attached to an electronic device, the energy will most likely find its way into the device’s electronics, wreaking havoc and potentially destroying the device.
EMPs can be generated in a few different ways:
Detonating A Nuclear Device
When testing nuclear bombs in the 1950s, the US noticed that nearby electronic equipment failed due to currents inducted in them from the resulting EMP.
It didn’t take them long to realise the potential of the nuclear EMP as a weapon and they soon developed the High-altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) weapon. A nuclear bomb optimised for EMP output rather than outright destruction, detonated in the upper atmosphere for maximum EMP range.
A standard nuclear bomb generates an EMP of 50,000 volts per square metre but the optimised HEMP weapons are rumoured to generate up to 200,000 volts per square metre.
The microelectronics powering our iPhones, computers, cars etc operate at just 5 volts. Anything more literally fries them.
Detonating A Non-Nuclear EMP Device
The US military has cruise missiles capable of emitting short range EMPs, without any nuclear component, designed to disable electronics in buildings and vehicles.
The Counter-electronics High-powered Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP) uses high power microwaves to knock out electronics in multi-story buildings.
Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) From The Sun
While the threat of WWIII is embedded in popular culture and a HEMP would likely be used first to cripple a nation’s military, before a nuclear strike, it isn’t necessarily the threat to worry about. The more likely threat is a CME from the Sun hitting Earth.
Our Sun operates on roughly an 11 year cycle, with giant sunspots forming frequently on the surface near the solar maximum (the next is in 2024). These sunspots can eject huge volumes of coronal mass into space, known as CMEs.
The direction of the CME is random but every now and again a big one happens to head in the direction of Earth. Statistically, it happens every 100 years and the last was dubbed the Carrington Event in 1859. That was 164 years ago, so we are overdue another one.
At the time it hit we only had a national network of telegraph wires, which the energy happily coupled into. Now we have the National Grid, ready and waiting for the energy from the next Carrington Event level CME.
There is a longer explanation in our EMP guide, but when this happens the event will likely play out like this:
Sun ejects a Carrington event sized CME on a trajectory towards Earth
It hits Earth 15 hours to several days later
The Earth’s magnetic field absorbs the energy, causing the Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights) over much of the planet
The energy ends up being absorbed by the power grid lines
The transformers which step down the grid voltage for use in cities are fried
The energy dissipates into homes connected to the grid, frying any electronic devices plugged into power sockets
Read our guide to nuclear and coronal mass ejection EMPs
World War Three (WWIII)
Will we see a third world war? It’s likely that nobody really knows the answer to that question. All we known is that human history is full to the brim with countries fighting each other over land, resources, ideology and religion.
What would WWIII look like? It would most likely be broken down into:
Conventional warfare: troops on the ground, tanks, artillery, missiles
Nuclear warfare: high yield strategic nukes, small yield tactical nukes
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP): High-altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) nuclear detonation, smaller Non-Nuclear EMP (NNEMP) from a missile
Cyber warfare: attacks on computers / information networks / the internet / communications networks
Societal Collapse
Human history is littered with societies which have collapsed, even those large and complex enough to seem robust enough to avoid it e.g. The Roman Empire.
The basic rule of thumb is that all societies will eventually collapse, given enough time. Some never recover but some bounce back and transform into new societies e.g. Egypt.
What Happens In SHTF?
In 2020 Coronavirus (Covid-19) suddenly appeared on the scene and provided a nice glimpse into exactly what might happen in SHTF:
Awareness “something” might be going on nearby and that it might be heading our way
Awareness the “something” is heading our way
Understanding what form the “something” is taking
Understanding of the scale and inevitability of the situation
Government reaction
Government action
Individual action
We can probably all remember the result. Simultaneous irrational actions by individuals at massive scale.
Or to put it another way mass misinformation, confusion, panic buying and strange behaviour from overly stressed individuals. Empty loo roll shelves, hand sanitiser out of stock everywhere and the Age of the Karens.
The reason SHTF plays out this way is a concept called Normalcy Bias or Normality Bias. So how does it play out for the things we all rely on?
Supermarkets And Local Stores
Imagine the scenes you have seen on the TV when Black Friday starts. Now multiply that by seven. Fighting over a cheap TV is one thing but imagine if it’s food and water.
A medium sized town might have 200,000 people living in it and let’s say each family normally goes shopping once a week.
In SHTF every family might suddenly decide to rush to their local store for supplies and the store instantly becomes seven times busier than normal.
The shelves empty very fast and the goods further down the supply chain aren’t enough to bring the shelves back up to full stock.
You might have experienced this at low level with people panic buying petrol when levels are low or toilet paper when a pandemic lockdown starts. Imagine a store seven times busier than usual with almost empty shelves.
So what disappears first?
Everyday essentials: toilet roll, milk, eggs, bread, butter, meat and ready meals
Thinking ahead: coffee, tea, UHT milk, alcohol, cigarettes, vapes, medicine, batteries, candles, baby formula, shower gel, soap, washing up liquid, bleach, toothpaste, razor blades, shaving gel
Thinking long term: rice, pasta, beans, flour, sugar, oats, tins, jars, condiments, cooking oil, herbs, spices, salt, pepper, yeast
Check out our guide on the best foods to store for prepping.
Aim to have 2-3 weeks of food in a dedicated pantry cupboard at all times
Cash
There are roughly 50,000 cash machines in the UK and depending on location each can hold anywhere up to £100,000. Sounds like a lot right?
If everyone in the near vicinity of a cash machine suddenly takes out £100 for emergency grocery shopping that machine will be empty after the first 1,000 people.
Cash machines in cities would empty faster, cash machines in remote locations are probably less stocked up and some people will withdraw far more if they think it gives them an advantage.
Cash machines also have a number of weaknesses to bear in mind:
They can’t operate without mains power
If the internet is down they can’t communicate with the bank
Have backup cash on you at all times, ideally in £10 and £20 notes
Petrol / gas
In a crisis everyone who can fills their tank as soon as they can. A car with a full tank offers mobility and that is super valuable.
This behaviour empties the petrol stations quickly and they have to wait for more fuel from tankers to arrive, if more fuel is available.
In a major disaster fuel will be re-directed to the Government, police, health services and the military if there is a massive shortage.
Petrol pumps use electricity to pump the petrol from the underground storage tanks up to the forecourt.
Never let your tank get below half full and make sure you have enough backup cash on you to buy fuel if bank cards are not working
If the power is out check the petrol station has power to pump before joining the long queues
Utilities
This is the bit Hollywood movies usual skip, but it is super important. The main utilities we rely on in the UK and most of the developed world are:
Water
Electricity
Gas
Rubbish Collection
Sewage Collection
Communications
Water
According to the Rule Of Three you can’t survive more than three days without safe drinking water. If you are trying to source food but you haven’t got any water, you are doing it wrong.
Thanks to some awesome science and civil engineering, water from a tap / faucet appears in a perfectly safe form for drinking or cooking with.
What if the water supply stops or becomes contaminated? Both are possible during SHTF because water is purified using electricity and pumped along the system using electricity.
Mains water can also be cut off by a local pipe bursting or become contaminated during severe flooding. If it starts coming out of the tap with a brown tinge it is probably best not to consume it.
Unfortunately finding, collecting, filtering and purifying your own water is a complex topic. With some preps and thinking ahead it is possible.
Never drink rainwater, melted snow or from lakes / rivers / streams without filtering and purifying it first
Always keep some backup bottled water at home
Electricity
Electricity is almost certainly the biggest headache for most people, especially in the UK where we are so reliant on it for:
Home heating
Hot water for baths
Boiling water for tea / coffee
Home lighting
Almost all forms of entertainment and communication
So how can we achieve some of these things when the grid is down?
USB power banks can be re-charged from your car, a low wattage solar panel or a hand crack generator
USB LED Christmas lights make an affective way to light a room
Pop-up battery lanterns are cheap and very effective at lighting up a room
A 600W solar generator combined with a low wattage kettle / induction hob / oil filled radiator gives you options for warming tinned food, boiling water and heating a small space
Keep a few USB power banks in your house and one in your bag
If you can, get a solar generator with solar panels
Gas
The gas grid is underground and pretty robust, so most of the usual suspects shouldn’t interfere with it, but it does have a few weaknesses:
Having enough supplies of gas in the country to meet demand
The UK only stores 12 days of gas, compared to 120 days of gas in the similar sized France
Electricity to power the pumps used to move it around the grid
Reliance on producing 50% of electricity in the UK from gas
A home gas supply is usually used for a boiler to heat the house and to provide hot water for baths / showers. It might also be used to power your cooking hob.
Some modern gas hobs use electricity for ignition and for some safety features, but they can usually be lit with a lighter / match if the electricity is out in your local area.
Unfortunately, most boilers need a supply of gas and a bit of electricity to function, so interruption to gas or electricity supply takes them out.
Without a gas supply your problems will be:
Heating up food safely indoors
Having a hot bath
Having a hot shower (if you don’t have an electric shower)
Heating your living space
Check out our guides on heating food, heating water and heating your living space when the grid is down.
Aim to have a large firesafe pot and a backup multifuel stove you can safely use outside with wood or charcoal
Rubbish
It is surprising how quickly rubbish / trash can accumulate if collections stop but what would cause them to stop? Bin lorries pretty much all rely on petrol, diesel or electricity to run, so any disruptions to those could quickly ground the fleet.
Humans create rubbish as a by-product of pretty much everything they do, so simply generating less rubbish isn’t really a viable option.
Once your main outside bin fills up the problem becomes where to safely store the additional binbags. Bags left outside on their own will quickly start to smell bad, split and attract cats / rats etc.
You can double bag rubbish to make it harder for animals to get into them. Storing them high off the ground can also make it harder for animals to access them. This can be on top of something of suspended with a rope from a branch or fence.
Keep lots of spare binbags / trash bags on hand plus some larger and sturdier contractor bags
Sewage
Much of the sewage collection and processing system in the UK requires power to operate. If the power goes down you may well find that toilets follow not long after.
Sewage born diseases like Dysentery and Cholera are thankfully a distant memory in the UK. If the power goes down and takes down the sewage system we could be in for a sharp reminder.
If just the water is out, the toilet may still function. You just need to find water from elsewhere to tip down it. This could be from your backup water supply, rainwater or even water collected from a stream / lake. Even “grey water” from washing the dishes / clothes would work.
If the main toilet is out of order the options for urine (pee) and faeces (poo) are:
Cheap: bucket / pool noodle seat / bin bags combo
Best all-round: caravan / RC style toilet with pink / blue chemicals
Advanced: composting toilet
A bucket and bag is doable for a short period of time, but not ideal and you will need to add sawdust / cat litter / soil to the bag between uses. Smells will be an issue.
Caravan toilets are great because the have separate flush and waste tanks with appropriate chemicals in both. The flush tank washes away the waste, sanitises and keeps odours down. Chemicals in the waste tank help to breakdown the waste and a good model holds a lot before it needs emptying.
Composting toilets produce the cleanest waste but it takes time, there is much to learn and they are overkill for most SHTF scenarios.
Have at least one backup toilet system and a plan for storing waste safely outside for a period of time
If the sewage lines are definitely compromised, shut off the water line to the toilet to prevent anyone accidentally flushing it
Have some commercial toilet paper rolls as a backup
Communication
Mobile phones are super useful for easy communication over long distances but, unfortunately, they rely entirely on the grid to function for communication.
For phone calls and text messages they need to connect to local base stations, found all over the country. These are powered by electricity from the grid but some do have backup generators with 24 - 48 hours of fuel.
When SHTF happens people naturally turn to their phones all at once, which overwhelms the bandwidth of the system. You may have experienced this just before New Years Eve when trying to text “happy new year” to someone.
The system also has levels of priority and unfortunately you, as an individual, are not a priority. It will let through calls from the Government, Police, Fire Service etc. first before dealing with connection requests from the masses.
Contact friends and family in the first 24 hours after SHTF
Have a SHTF location / plan agreed in advance with your loved ones if communications are down
Is Anyone Monitoring The SHTF Scenarios?
The UK Government keeps a National Risk Register of possible SHTF events, including how likely they believe them to be and how much of an impact they would have. Interesting reading - check it out.
Are There Any Other Ways Of Saying SHTF?
Canadian Prepper is fond of saying “When the Shizzy Hits The Fizzy”.
In the US military they change the status of a situation from Situation Normal All Fucked Up (SNAFU) to Fucked Up Beyond All Recognition (FUBAR).
Some people use SHTF interchangeably with the word Apocalypse.