Normalcy Bias

What Is Normalcy Bias?

Normalcy Bias, or the easier to remember Normality Bias, is a cognitive bias which happens in times of crisis. A tendency in your thinking to lean to the “it will never happen” and “things will sort themselves out“ side.

It causes you to underestimate the likelihood and impact of a negative event e.g. “it probably won’t happen” and “it’s probably not as bad as they are making out”.

In a SHTF scenario it can lead you to minimise a threat or disbelieve that the threat is real. It leads your decision making process down a path which makes it more likely you will be affected by the threat.

You end up wasting the time you could have used to put in place preventative measures and it puts you in a position where you are less able to cope with the situation.

While most Governments plan for people to mass panic in the face of a disaster, the opposite tends to happen. The vast majority of people just carry on as normal, as if nothing new is occurring.

If you have Netflix check out a movie called Don’t Look Up to see normalcy bias in action

What Causes Normality Bias?

Information

Humans will generally refuse to act on a new threat without a body of evidence confirming that it is actually a threat and it is definitely going to happen.

In past times this information might be have been sourced from the Government, a few trusted national newspapers and a network of friends.

Now the sheer number of global information sources available to us is overwhelming and each has its own agenda to take into account. How does one easily discern the truth from hundreds of TikTok, YouTube, Facebook and X channels, before even turning on the TV?

Social Factors

If all of your neighbours are staying calm and acting normally in the face of a disaster, is it really a disaster? Can that many people you have known for years be wrong?

If they all suddenly change their behaviour in the space of a few days, would you change your behaviour as well?

Attachment To Beliefs

You have lived in your house for years, you feel safe in your house, it’s where all of your supplies are and you know the local area well.

If a Government representative suddenly tells you to evacuate because it will probably be engulfed in a life threatening situation in the near future, what do you do?

A surprising percentage of people will fall on the side of normality bias and stay put, regardless of the data presented to them.

This is why there are always some people deciding to stay behind when a flood, hurricane or wild fire engulfs an area.

Why Does Normality Bias Matter?

It prevents people preparing in a few important areas. According to The Rule Of Three a person can only survive 3 days without water and 3 weeks without food. A human needs at least 4 litres of water per day and a minimum of 800 calories to avoid starvation.

Many people know and understand this concept, yet still fail to have even a few days of backup water or a few weeks of backup food in their house, ready to go.

An average person in a city only has a few days worth of food in their kitchen and no backup water. The bias of their thinking toward normality is simply too strong to even think about a backup plan for the two things keeping them alive.

Does Normality Bias Affect Everyone Equally?

Yes, but what is “normal” depends on which generation you belong to. Your grand parents may have fresh memories of the war and rationing, the lessons of which may have been passed down to your parents.

Your parents might think it normal to have a fully stocked pantry cupboard, full chest freezer, an allotment or chickens for eggs. For this generation, that level of preparedness is called “common sense” not prepping.

Younger generations are removed enough from the lessons of the past to think normal means minimal food supplies at home and popping to the supermarket every few days for another basket of fresh food.

Fridge empty? No problem, just order another McDonalds from Deliveroo.

How To Overcome Normality Bias

Employ some critical thinking techniques:

• Is your decision making based on hard data you have learned from thorough research or anecdotal evidence you heard on the grapevine e.g. trending reaction videos on YouTube, news organisations jumping on the story for views, Chinese Whispers, “Joe down the pub reckons….”

• Could your source on TikTok or YouTube have a hidden agenda? Perhaps they are making money from adverts or need you to click through to Amazon to buy something so they get a small kickback.

• Are you fine with being wrong in your assessment of the situation? Humans tend to think they are right most of the time, which can prevent them even considering the possibility they might be wrong now and again.

What Is The Opposite Of Normality Bias?

The opposite of normality bias is situational awareness. This is understanding the elements which make up your environment, how they change over time and what an anomaly, or something unexpected, looks like.

A good example is the first wave of Covid-19 landing in a country. When the news presented data that was clearly an anomaly, people split into two camps.

One camp moved to a higher level of situational awareness and immediately started gathering more data. The other camp carried on as if nothing new was happening.

Phrases Which Mean The Same Thing As Normality Bias?

• The Ostrich Effect (Burying your head in the sand)

• Status quo bias

• Being in denial